Why waste time with a 401k when you could just bet against the Jets?

I’ve been a Jets fan for as long as I can remember, and like any self-respecting Jets fan, I have no respect for the franchise.

I’ve written up an ode to Sam Darnold contracting mono, a plea to fire Adam Gase, and a detailed explanation of Jets misery in 2015 for SB Nation. Somehow this take from five years ago hasn’t aged a day:

Today, I want to see what would have happened if I put my money behind my pessimism.

Thanks to the heroics of Twitter user @mrcaseb, we have access to a dataset of all the betting lines and spreads for NFL games since 2004, collected across a variety of sportsbooks. Smarter analysts than me will likely use this data as features to build in-depth and sophisticated machine learning models to improve their betting; the smartest ones would probably never reveal they did it and count their winnings in blissful silence.

I’ll admit, the Jets cause me to lose the cold rationality of a data scientist. I believe in my scarred heart that they’ll lose every single game in some debilitating fashion. What if I bet that feeling?

We’ll track the last ten Jets seasons, starting with the 2010 year, and use the bet365 sportsbook for the odds, as they have data on all sixteen games for each season. I’m using a few key assumptions.

• We start with a $100 deposit in 2010 and bet $10 on the first game.

• We’ll bet that the Jets do not cover the spread, which opens up far more hilarity than just winning vs losing. We’re betting that they either lose by a larger margin than expected when underdogs, blow it as a favorite, or win as a favorite but by a slimmer margin. Here’s a great guide on how those odds work.

• I’ll track two versions: in one, all wins are reinvested into the next bet, so if I win $5 in week one, I’ll bet $15 on week two. In the other, we’ll stick to a strict $10 only, and pocket any winnings.

• All losses are deducted from the total, and we only bet $10 the next week.

• While a smart bettor might cut their losses if we lose the entire $100, I’m curious how low the ROI goes.

• We’ll track this return against a $100 purchase of equivalent Amazon stock in 2010, a savings account with 1% annual interest, and, tragically, an optimistic Jets fan shorting my position and believing that they’ll cover.

Liquidate your assets now

Here’s a look at how our investment strategies would play out over the last ten years. In a fun twist, the very first game we’d be betting on—a 2010 Jets/Ravens barnburner that the Ravens won 10-9—ended up being a push for our bets, as the spread pegged the Jets losing by 1. Push bets mean we just get our wager back, so if that ever happens, we’ll run back the winning bets or default back to a $10 bet if the one prior was a loss.

First, the cautious approach. What happens if you keep to a $10 bet regardless of the prior week’s result?

Optimistic Jets fans would take an early victory lap in 2010, but fate laughs at any fan who thinks Gang Green provides lifelong smiles.

At the end of this experiment, if you had bet $10 against the Jets every single week, your initial $100 deposit would end at $207.90, for a tidy profit margin of $107.90. 

If you believed in the Jets, you already made one mistake. Your second ended up costing you $230.83, as that strategy ended $130.83 in the hole.

What about doubling down on your wins?

I watched The Big Short, so trust me when I say this is not a sound investment.

Both the pessimists and optimists end up losing their shirts in this, with the haters down -$5.22 and the misguided, hopeful Jets fans down -$130.43. Oddly enough, there’s not much of difference between the aggressive and conservative strategies, which crystalizes the key finding for me.

You’ll always go broke believing in the Jets.

As promised earlier, here’s how that $100 would look for the best approach compared to Amazon’s stock performance and a typical savings account with 1% annual interest.

While we might not beat out Jeff Bezos’ empire, a Jets hater would do better embracing their rage than parking their money in a savings account. We just need the FDIC to insure my hedge fund, Gang Green Pessimists Limited.

What have we learned? Gambling is great!

I had a hunch that Jets optimism would end up in the red, but I'm fully shocked that conservatively betting against the Jets every week would net you a 2.08X return on your initial investment.

I’ve been trying to save money in dumb things like a 401K or a savings account while the real solution stared back at me every somber Sunday, likely down 14 by halftime.

If/when the NFL returns, I’m willing to put this model to the test. I’ll put $100 on the line and bet my $10 for week one, assuming that the moribund, soon-to-lose Jamal Adams Jets will not cover any spread.

Jim Cramer, eat your heart out.

Do you, yes you, want to join a throwback draft?

I’d love to hear from you, my favorite people!

I have been planning out an interactive draft with a few friends of the program, and I would love to bring more of you into the mix! I’m thinking of streaming a fantasy draft in NBA 2K16 on Twitch, where each guest picks a team and can make selections before we simulate a couple seasons and laugh at the terrible 2K trade logic.

I’m working out the kinks on the how and the when, but if you’re interested in joining, email me at [email protected] or just reply to this post!

Like betting against the Jets, a true win-win.

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